Pope Francis is marking the 12th anniversary of his election on Thursday, from Rome’s Gemelli Hospital, where he has been since mid-February. The pontiff’s recovery from double pneumonia—complicated by chronic respiratory disease and the partial removal of one lung decades ago—is proceeding slowly and has seen a couple of setbacks already.

The fact is, however, that nobody expected him to be here at all.

The election of a 76-year-old cardinal from Buenos Aires—Jorge Mario Bergoglio, as he was then known to the world—was a big surprise, and only five other popes have reached the age of 88.

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