A new survey shows support among Catholics for the Republican Party is declining as the United States approaches the midterm elections next month.

This may be a general national trend rather than one of religious significance.

A survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4 by the Pew Research Center shows 42 percent of Catholics support Democratic candidates for Congress, while 39 percent support Republicans.

However, there is a stark divide by ethnicity: White Catholic voters support 50 percent of Republicans versus 32 percent of Democrats; among Hispanic Catholic voters, it is just 19 percent for Republicans versus 59 percent for Democrats.

Does this reflect a specific change in Catholic attitudes towards the Republican Party?

Not really.

In Pew’s figures, Catholic approval of Trump is 30 percent, exactly the national figure found in another poll.

An AP-NORC poll carried out Oct. 8-12, 2026, says a large majority of voters say the country needs either “substantial change” or “complete and total upheaval” in how it is run.

“Democratic and independent voters are especially likely to want change, with about half of Democrats and 4 in 10 independents saying they want upheaval,” the polling organization said.

“Republican voters, though less likely to favor complete upheaval, are still seeking change. Nearly half, 45 percent, say they would like to see substantial change in how the country is run,” it adds.

AP-NORC says three-in-ten Americans now say they approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president, while 68 percent disapprove – down 4 percentage points from July and the lowest approval rating of his second term.

The Pew poll also says that since the beginning of his second term, Trump’s approval rating has “dropped significantly” among all U.S. adults.

“Much of this decline in his approval ratings over the course of his term is among Trump’s own 2024 voters,” the organizations says, “67 percent of validated Trump 2024 voters approve of his job performance today while 31 percent disapprove.”

“At the beginning of his term, 95 percent approved,” the organization also says, adding that some of the starkest declines have come among Hispanic and younger voters who backed Trump in 2024.

The huge drop among Hispanic voters nationally affects the Catholic vote.

Pew says confidence in Trump’s handling of several key issues, including the economy, foreign policy and immigration, is also lower than at the beginning of his term.

“Also, most Americans (69 percent) say they have little confidence in Trump to keep his business interests separate from his presidential decision-making,” the Pew report says.

Catholic leaders have gone against the Trump administration on issues such as the treatment of undocumented immigrants, the war against Iran, and the announced livestream execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan.

The backlash against the announcement of plans to broadcast the execution caused Trump to reverse the decision announced by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier this month.

However, other issues may still affect the Catholic vote.

The Pew poll was taken before Pope Leo XIV announced he was receiving an operation on his lungs, which was later determined to be for cancer.

The AP-NORC poll was taken almost immediately after Leo announced he was going to the hospital. Although the Vatican says his recovery is proceeding as expected, it has drawn attention to the perceived conflict between Trump and Pope Leo.

The U.S. president has often attacked the pope about his views on the Iran war, claiming Leo wants Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.

“I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” he wrote on social media on April 12.

On Oct. 14, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he wants to see Pope Leo get well.

“I hear the prognosis for that type of a problem. It’s a cancer. It’s big stuff… Anytime you have cancer. But the prognosis seems to be good, I’ve watched. And we just want to wish him our love and our best wishes,” Trump said.

He also mentioned the pope’s brother, Louis Prevost, who is himself noted to be a conservative Republican.

“His brother is a friend of mine, who’s a great — he’s a fantastic guy — and his wife. You know, they’re big Trump supporters. They have MAGA all over their house,” Trump said, “and I can say that his brother loves him a lot. Loves the Pope a lot, and that’s good, but I just want to wish him well. Get better fast.”

The leading Catholic in the Trump administration, Vice President JD Vance, has also seemed to see how the winds are blowing.

“I’m not going to be watching it,” he said of the execution on Oct. 9, before Trump announced it wouldn’t be live-streamed.

Vance also said on X – the platform formally known as Twitter – that his family is continuing to pray for the good health and full recovery of Pope Leo.

“May God grant him strength as he works to get better. I hope he knows that millions of American Christians are thinking about him,” he said.

The lead of Trump’s cabinet, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also posted on X about the pontiff’s surgery on Oct. 13.

“Jeanette and I are united in prayer for [Leo’s] health following his recent diagnosis. May the Lord give him strength and the Holy Spirit guide the medical professionals taking care of the Holy Father,” the Catholic official wrote.

Vance and Rubio are widely seen as the leading figures expected to be the most likely Republican candidates in the 2028 presidential election.

A bad midterm for the Republicans would be the occasion for them to pivot against many of Trump’s divisive decisions, which experts and many voters blame for rising fuel and food prices in the country.

The question is: Will the MAGA movement allow a Republican candidate to question Trump on any issue?

Punishing a candidate at the polls for parting ways with Trump could prevent Republicans from winning the White House.

Do MAGA Republicans care?

Follow Charles Collins on X: @CharlesinRome

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