YAOUNDÉ, Cameroon – As the conflict continues to ravage the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Association of Episcopal Conferences of Central Africa (ACEAC) has issued a stark warning about the real possibility of the violence spreading throughout the entire Great Lakes region of Africa.

During a recent meeting in Dar es Salaam – the largest city of Tanzania – the Church leaders from Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Rwanda gathered to discuss potential pathways to peace in eastern DRC.

These are the three largest bishops of the Great Lakes, and the meetin was led by their chairperson, Bishop José Moko of the DRC.

“Our sub-region has been burdened by disturbances to peace at multiple levels,” the  bishops said.

The conflict in eastern DRC has been going on for decades, but it’s reached a dangerous level this year following the continued advance of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel forces.

Disregarding calls by regional leaders for a pause in the fighting, the rebel group continued their offensive to seize more territory in the eastern DRC, capturing the North Kivu capital, Goma – a town of 2 million people – and the capital of South Kivu. Bukavu has a population of 1.3 million.  The rebels have also pressed further south, capturing Kamanyola on its way to Uvira, with a population of 650,000 and is the third largest city in the Kivus. Another prong moved north of Goma toward Butembo, which has a population of 280,000.

The advance of the M23 means it could end up controlling the entire 77,000 square miles of the mineral-rich Kivus, putting under the control of Rwanda.

The advance of the M23 has left at least 7,000 people dead and 450,000 others displaced since January 25, worsening an already precarious humanitarian crisis.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed, and reports of wide-spread human rights violations are frequent, including the rape of women and children.

The ACEAC bishops denounced what they called the culture of death in the region.

“The sub-region is on the brink of implosion, risking the generalization of deadly wars,” the bishops warned in their statement.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the DRC noted that the fighting is not only about natural resources, but also the result of the fact that “our hearts have become insensitive to the misery of our neighbors.”

The bishops urged the several armed groups fighting in the region “to stop defending their claims through the use of weapons that kill their own brothers and sisters.”

The prelates reiterated their commitment to peace-building, and expressed the hope that “our countries turn swords that kill into ploughshares for the development of the sub-region.”

Ladd Serwat, PhD, is the Senior Analyst of Africa for ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) said he doesn’t believe that armies in the region could end up fighting each other, but rebel groups active in the DRC could play a destabilizing role in neighboring countries.

“I don’t expect direct conflict between military forces outside of DRC, nor the M23 to turn attention beyond Congolese territory,” he told Crux.

He said it was unlikely that the M23-RDF (Rwanda Defense Forces) coalition will be able to launch a widespread offensive in the DRC while also targeting Kinshasa’s regional supporters, such as Burundi.

Additionally, it is improbable that Burundi or Rwanda would engage in direct military offensives against each other on their own territory. Uganda, he explained, has taken a more neutral stance by supporting the FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo) to secure the border region between Uganda and the DRC, while avoiding direct confrontation with the M23-RDF.

“Therefore, direct conflict between Uganda and Rwanda also seems unlikely,” Serwat said.

He explained further that a regional spillover would more likely have the opposite effect for Burundi and Uganda.

“For Burundi, the instability created by the M23-RDF takeover may permit groups such as ‘Résistance pour un État de Droit au Burundi’ [Resistance for Rule of Law in Burundi – RED-Tabara],  a Burundian rebel militia formed in 2015 during the political crisis in the country to carry out increased insurgent attacks across the border,” he said.

“The M23-RDF has already forged alliances with groups such as the Twirwaneho and RED-Tabara, so it wouldn’t be surprising for the M23 to permit safe haven for RED-Tabara in areas under their control. Burundian and Congolese military forces had conducted widespread clearing operations against RED-Tabara and other Mayi-Mayi groups in recent years, limiting the capacity of these militias and rebel groups. If RED-Tabara could operate freely in an M23 controlled South Kivu – especially if provided some level of support – RED-Tabara may conduct increased insurgent attacks into Burundi,” Serwat explained.

ACEAC Bishops said they are committed to regional efforts towards fostering peace in the region, particularly with respect to the Nairobi and Luanda processes.

Both are regional initiatives intended to address the ongoing conflict in the DRC. The Nairobi Process led by the East African Community (EAC) aims to facilitate dialogue between the Congolese government and various armed groups, including the M23 rebels, to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Launched in April 2022, it has seen several rounds of negotiations and ceasefire agreements. However, the process has faced challenges, including political distractions, military withdrawals, and a lack of commitment from key stakeholders.

It was recently merged with yet another initiative-the Luanda Process, mediated by Angolan President João Lourenço under the African Union’s auspices.

The joint EAC-SADC summit appointed former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, ex-Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo, and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn as co-facilitators for the merged peace process.

The peace talks aim to persuade armed groups in eastern DRC to lay down their arms while addressing tensions between Rwanda and the DRC. The joint summit has called for an immediate ceasefire, the provision of humanitarian assistance, and the reopening of main supply routes.

“We assure them of our willingness to contribute to the building of peace, of which we are protagonists due to our evangelical mission,” the bishops said.

For the Director of the Denis Hurley Peace Institute of the Southern Africa Bishops’ Conference, peace will return if all foreign militias and militaries leave eastern DRC.

“This conflict has been going on for decades,” Johan Viljoen told Crux.

“The pathway to peace is, first, all foreign forces must disengage from Congo and that includes Rwanda and everyone else, and the people who live in the east of the DRC must determine their own future,” he added.