Democrats get a religious win. Will they grab hold of it?

“I’m proud to be an American and to exercise the right.”

These were the words of Pope Leo XIV on Friday as he flew to Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay, the first leg of his three-nation visit to South America.

The voyage came just a few days after the Democratic Party swept control of both houses of Congress in the United States, as well as winning a number of state elections, including in Texas, where Republicans had been in power for over 30 years.

When he was specifically asked about the results in Texas, Leo said, “No comment.”

Most analysts see the rout of the Republican Party last Tuesday as a repudiation of the second presidency of Donald Trump, with rising prices, the ongoing war against Iran, and harsh actions against immigrants (including some U.S. citizens) by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

Polls show that support for the Trump administration has dropped among U.S. Catholics (along with the general population), especially Hispanic Catholics.

Trump did surprisingly well among male minority Americans, many of whom wanted better enforcement of immigration laws. However, the tactics of ICE hit the minority communities hard, and their support plummeted.

The elections are also giving the Catholic Church an interesting seat at the table in U.S. politics.

The Democrat elected to be governor of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, is Catholic. She unseated another Catholic, Greg Abbott.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson won the Senate election. He is described as being “raised Catholic” – although nothing says he left the religion – and he defeated Susan Collins, who is Catholic.

In many ways, the Catholic Church is the swing-state of Religion in the United States.

Trump’s strongest supporters come from Evangelical churches, many of whom strongly support his anti-immigrant, pro-Israel policies. The Republican administration has also been largely pro-life and opposed to policies many see as promoting transgenderism.

However, many of the candidates winning for the Democrats on Tuesday were members of mainline Christian denominations, including those who were clergy.

United Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton won the Senate election in Kansas, and Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico won the Senate seat in Texas. Meanwhile, ELCA Lutheran minister Sarah Trone Garriott and Presbyterian minister Lindsay James were elected to the House of Representatives for Iowa.

“Two thousand years ago, when the people at the top hurt [theirneighbors, that barefoot rabbi didn’t stay in his room and pray. He walked into the seat of power, and he flipped over the tables of injustice,” Talarico said in his election speech. “…Texas, it’s time to start flipping tables.”

Catholic voters often support both parties on different issues.

The Trump administration has made efforts to support Catholics who support pro-life issues, while sidelining those who oppose it for progressive reasons.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and the so-called “Border Czar” Tom Homan are both Catholic and were often used as the administration’s pit bulls in the early days to speak on issues that conflicted with the official position of the U.S. Catholic Conference of Bishops.

Trump also maintained a warm relationship with the former archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, and the Bishop of Winona–Rochester, Robert Barron.

Yet this strategy has been hampered by Trump himself. Since the election of Pope Leo – the first American pontiff – the U.S. president has often attacked the pontiff.

In April, Trump told reporters Pope Leo was “a very liberal person” who was “weak on crime”, “terrible for foreign policy,” and even “catering to the radical left.”

How then, is it still true that recent polls show that the majority of white, Mass-going Catholics still support Trump?

The pro-life issue is the answer. Democrats strongly support pro-choice legislation and are generally in favor of “gender-affirming” laws, including allowing children who were born male to enter girl-only spaces and play female sports.

Since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion across the United States, the pro-life issue has become a stronger voting concern.

Abortion is still legal in most of the U.S. and has even become easier to legally obtain in some states. With Democrats gaining office in some of the most pro-life states in the country, it will become a leading issue there, too.

Because of Roe v. Wade, the United States didn’t have the same compromise that happened in most of Europe, where abortion became legal on a limited basis, usually before a specific period between the 12^th and 24^th week of pregnancy. After this consensus was reached, Catholic bishops became less vocal about changing the law and focused on trying to urge women not to seek abortions.

Can members of the Democratic Party in the United States seek a common path? Much of its vital support comes from industries on the East and West coasts – with the rest of the country referred to as “flyover states.” Hollywood and Manhattan are where funding can come to the party, but they are also areas where religious believers are shunned.

Democrats now have Christian politicians holding office in the flyover states and an American pope often attacked by the Republican president. Will the party be able to take advantage of this opportunity?

It must decide soon. The top three prospects now being discussed as possible Republican candidates for the 2028 presidential election are Catholic – Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

They may not have the same unique personal appeal of Donald Trump, but they are less likely to attack the pope by name.

Follow Charles Collins on X: @CharlesinRome